Is The Housing Market OK?

The two questions that dominate the housing market industry continue to be either:

Q1: When will the Fed cut interest rates?

A1: Back Half of 2024? – My wild guess is that rate cuts will be in the back half of 2024. Not in March. Not in June. Unemployment is way too low. In reality, you probably shouldn’t listen to me. Here’s a historical look at how quickly those cuts occur.

Q2: When will NAR membership collapse?

A2: Two to Three Years? – It is reasonable to assume that NAR will become a shadow of its current self as a trade group in a few years. What does it do for its members now that it’s no longer required for most real estate agents? Look for competitors like American REA to change the trade group space. The market has proved that trade groups should be “opted into” rather than required to enter the profession just like other industries. I’ve made a wild guess that NAR membership will be reduced to 300K members in 2-3 years from its current 1.6 million members – about 20% of the industry, much like doctors, lawyers, and appraisers. Membership topped out in 2022 and began to slide with the drop in sales. That’s not what I’m referring to. It’s all about NAR’s reason for being and its cost-benefit to realtors over time.

In other words, the housing market is likely stable, but the National Association of Realtors (NAR) is not. The following briefly explains the origin of the term “OK.” You will find this interesting if you read Housing Notes. See the original article here

This article originally was published by HousingNotes by Jonathan Miller